Well I'm going to get this one in on time. Turns out Levi was a good pick. That should move me up in the standings. It is going to come down to the final picks for Sunday.
Who: Thor Hushovd
Why: He's been quiet, too quiet, since his win way back in Stage 3 or 4 or whenever it was he won. He won on the Champs-Élysées last year and I'm hoping he'll have finally recovered from all the mountain (dumb) stages to bag one for me on the final day. I'm a bit worried that a "spectacular protest" may throw a wrench into things. That would be pretty sweet, though.
Showing posts with label tdfpicks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label tdfpicks. Show all posts
Saturday, July 28, 2007
Stage 19 Pick
Once again, I'm late in posting this. For Stages 18, 19, and 20, all my picks were made Thursday afternoon. Plus, I haven't read the results of the TT yet.
Who: Levi Leipheimer
Why: As demonstrated in the ToC, he can time-trial fairly well. He's in a good position for the overall so will be quite motivated.
Who: Levi Leipheimer
Why: As demonstrated in the ToC, he can time-trial fairly well. He's in a good position for the overall so will be quite motivated.
Friday, July 27, 2007
Stage 18 Pick
Please excuse my tardiness in posting this. Working out the logistics of Altoona has forced me to take some time away from the blogosphere temporarily (more on Altoona later). Did you miss me? DIdn't think so.
Who: Tom Boonen
Why: Well he's the strongest guy left. That's all there is to it. However, given that I'm posting this after knowing already the results of the stage, I have to say it should have been quite obvious given yesterday's stage that a break would stay away. Oh well.
Who: Tom Boonen
Why: Well he's the strongest guy left. That's all there is to it. However, given that I'm posting this after knowing already the results of the stage, I have to say it should have been quite obvious given yesterday's stage that a break would stay away. Oh well.
Wednesday, July 25, 2007
Stage 17 Pick
Wow! The Tour has more drama than The OC, drunk sorority girls and a TNT primetime lineup combined! Stage 17 is a sprinter's stage . . . I really don't think a break will last especially with all but one of the categorized climbs over by the first third of the stage.
Who: Erik Zabel
Why: He's been there and thereabouts for almost every sprint stage. I think he will have gotten through the mountains with less effort than Boonen and the other Big Guns. Finally, back to the exciting stages!
Who: Erik Zabel
Why: He's been there and thereabouts for almost every sprint stage. I think he will have gotten through the mountains with less effort than Boonen and the other Big Guns. Finally, back to the exciting stages!
Tuesday, July 24, 2007
Stage 16 Pick
Vino. Hah. Vino. (and by Vino, of course, I mean wine).
Who: Iban Mayo
Why: He's a Spaniard and they're going through Spain today. The Col d'Aubisque is somewhat near the Spanish border and is also a pretty long and steady climb, favoring old man strength versus the short and steep climbs that require youthful explosiveness. The only thing that concerns me is that, in light of the Vino news (again, wine, of course), there could be a big protest. However, given the tight race between Contador (definitely a doper) and Rasmussen (double-definitely a doper), a protest-neutralized stage is unlikely.
Who: Iban Mayo
Why: He's a Spaniard and they're going through Spain today. The Col d'Aubisque is somewhat near the Spanish border and is also a pretty long and steady climb, favoring old man strength versus the short and steep climbs that require youthful explosiveness. The only thing that concerns me is that, in light of the Vino news (again, wine, of course), there could be a big protest. However, given the tight race between Contador (definitely a doper) and Rasmussen (double-definitely a doper), a protest-neutralized stage is unlikely.
Sunday, July 22, 2007
Stage 15 Pick
Well, I think this is kind of a crapshoot. The GC contenders should be exhausted an beat from Stage 14 (but with the drugs these days, you can be superman two days in a row), so I'm thinking an early break should be given a massive advantage. Thus, it favors a decent climber that is way down on GC.
Who: Manuel "Tricky" Beltran
Why: He can go uphill pretty fast as he demonstrated many times in the service of LA. Riding for Liquigas, they won't have much more to hope for other than another stage win or two. Tomorrow will be intereseting.
Who: Manuel "Tricky" Beltran
Why: He can go uphill pretty fast as he demonstrated many times in the service of LA. Riding for Liquigas, they won't have much more to hope for other than another stage win or two. Tomorrow will be intereseting.
Stage 14 Pick
Hmmm, if Klödi hadn't fallen, maybe he could've even gotten 2nd. I guess Vino is back, too.
Who: Michael Rasmussen
Why: Duh
Who: Michael Rasmussen
Why: Duh
Friday, July 20, 2007
Stage 13 Pick
Well that Cat2 climb didn't sort out the sprinters like I expected. Dang. I need points tomorrow since they're catching up on me.
Who: Andreas Klöden
Why: Look at his performance in the prologue. I can't pick Cancellara or Millar (they're taken). My only concern is that Vino will ask him to save something for the following two stages.
Who: Andreas Klöden
Why: Look at his performance in the prologue. I can't pick Cancellara or Millar (they're taken). My only concern is that Vino will ask him to save something for the following two stages.
Thursday, July 19, 2007
Wednesday, July 18, 2007
Stage 11 Pick
Hmmm, on my long list for Stage 10 were both Sandy Casar as well as Cedric Vasseur. I should've thought to include Jens Voigt, obviously, but in the end, it didn't matter. Stage 11 should be a more straightforward small break + late catch + normal sprint.
Who: Fred Rodriguez
Why: McEwen is out and Rodriguez has been given the go-ahead to play his own card. He won't ever be much help to Cadel Evans except for tempo riding but they're not in that position, yet. A messy sprint could favor him although he has been known to be a pansyass when it comes to riders crossing lines and wheels. We'll see.
Who: Fred Rodriguez
Why: McEwen is out and Rodriguez has been given the go-ahead to play his own card. He won't ever be much help to Cadel Evans except for tempo riding but they're not in that position, yet. A messy sprint could favor him although he has been known to be a pansyass when it comes to riders crossing lines and wheels. We'll see.
Tuesday, July 17, 2007
Stage 10 Pick
This is another tough one to pick. Will Quickstep and Milram keep things in check? My guess is no. I'm betting on a small break staying away with a couple Cat3 and Cat4 climbs.
Who: Philippe Gilbert
Why: He's way down on GC, a Belgian one-day classic kind of rider, and riding for FDJ, whose best-placed GC man is in 69th place, a whopping 35'39" down (after Stage 8), one place below Erik Zabel . . . ZABEL! I've got my fingers crossed.
Who: Philippe Gilbert
Why: He's way down on GC, a Belgian one-day classic kind of rider, and riding for FDJ, whose best-placed GC man is in 69th place, a whopping 35'39" down (after Stage 8), one place below Erik Zabel . . . ZABEL! I've got my fingers crossed.
Monday, July 16, 2007
Stage 9 Pick
Well this is a tough one to pick. You've got some massively long and steep climbs but then a 38k descent to the finish. So you've gotta go with someone that can climb, can descend and can sprint. But do you go with a lesser name? Someone that wants just a single day of glory? Like I said, tough. Contador is taken, but otherwise I think he'd be a good pick.
Who: Alejandro Valverde
Why: Well, he can climb and he can sprint. He'll be in the "contenders" group. He won L-B-L so when he gets to the line with all those petite climbers, he should be able to outkick them (kind of like the asshat move he pulled on Cristophe Moreau in Stage 8).
Who: Alejandro Valverde
Why: Well, he can climb and he can sprint. He'll be in the "contenders" group. He won L-B-L so when he gets to the line with all those petite climbers, he should be able to outkick them (kind of like the asshat move he pulled on Cristophe Moreau in Stage 8).
Sunday, July 15, 2007
Stage 8 Pick
Who: Levi Leipheimer
Why: The second real Alpine stage *should* give some sorting-out to the GC standings. However, some of them may want to wait until the Pyrénées to make their moves (this is a mistake, in my opinion). Levi is going fairly well, following somewhat in the footsteps of Landis in preparation for the Tour. We'll see if any of the GC men have what it takes.
Why: The second real Alpine stage *should* give some sorting-out to the GC standings. However, some of them may want to wait until the Pyrénées to make their moves (this is a mistake, in my opinion). Levi is going fairly well, following somewhat in the footsteps of Landis in preparation for the Tour. We'll see if any of the GC men have what it takes.
Friday, July 13, 2007
Stage 7 Pick
Haven’t seen the end of Stage 6 yet. Hoping Boonen podiums, at least.
Who: Frank Schleck
Why: CSC has indicated that he, along with Sastre, is their GC hopeful. I don’t think tomorrow will really sort out much of the GC but I think the stage will suit Schleck . . . much like the stage to Alpe d’Huez that he won last year. Plus, Luxembourg is nearly French, so he’s almost riding for Bastille Day glory. In hindsight, this is probably a bad pick because you KNOW a Frenchman will buy his way into the win tomorrow.
Who: Frank Schleck
Why: CSC has indicated that he, along with Sastre, is their GC hopeful. I don’t think tomorrow will really sort out much of the GC but I think the stage will suit Schleck . . . much like the stage to Alpe d’Huez that he won last year. Plus, Luxembourg is nearly French, so he’s almost riding for Bastille Day glory. In hindsight, this is probably a bad pick because you KNOW a Frenchman will buy his way into the win tomorrow.
Thursday, July 12, 2007
Stage 6 Pick
Hincapie placed 6th. Not bad, not bad. Stage 6 is another pure sprinter's stage.
Who: Tom Boonen
Why: He needs to do the Green Jersey honor and win a stage outright. His opportunities are becoming fewer and fewer. My only worry is that tomorrow will be a very easy stage and, in general, Boonen sprints well at the end of a hard stage when everyone else is tired.
Who: Tom Boonen
Why: He needs to do the Green Jersey honor and win a stage outright. His opportunities are becoming fewer and fewer. My only worry is that tomorrow will be a very easy stage and, in general, Boonen sprints well at the end of a hard stage when everyone else is tired.
Wednesday, July 11, 2007
Stage 5 Pick
What a hectic finish for Stage 4. Glad for Hushovd to get on the top step for the first time this year. Also glad my pick, Oscar Freire, got a podium spot. Good on Robbie Hunter for his consistency. Now, back to business:
Who: George Hincapie
Why: The stage has 8 categorized climbs (4xCat4 3xCat3 1xCat2), very nearly assuring a break will stay away. CSC looks ripe to hand off the jersey after doing a lot of tempo work (unnecessarily, in my opinion) early in the week. Hincapie is a man for the classics-type stages and Bruyneel has shown time and again that, without Armstrong, he's about as effective as a chicken with its head cut off when trying to organize a GC-centric team. Look for Hincapie to be part of a 10+ man breakaway and unleash his halfway-decent sprint in the finish.
Who: George Hincapie
Why: The stage has 8 categorized climbs (4xCat4 3xCat3 1xCat2), very nearly assuring a break will stay away. CSC looks ripe to hand off the jersey after doing a lot of tempo work (unnecessarily, in my opinion) early in the week. Hincapie is a man for the classics-type stages and Bruyneel has shown time and again that, without Armstrong, he's about as effective as a chicken with its head cut off when trying to organize a GC-centric team. Look for Hincapie to be part of a 10+ man breakaway and unleash his halfway-decent sprint in the finish.
Tuesday, July 10, 2007
Stage 4 Pick
Whoa. Cancellara. More impressive than McEwen's Stage 1 win. Seriously. Stuff of champions.
Who: Oscar Freire
Why: Four Cat 4 climbs over 193km means the sprinters will have to do a bit more work than they like to. Freire, being a rather cheeky rider, is well-suited to this type of stage. It's somewhat reminiscent of Milano-San Remo, which Freire of course won this year. The only problem is that he'll have to do it himself since they've got the team dedicated to Menchov (minus Rasmussen who is allowed to do his own Chicken Pox thing).
Who: Oscar Freire
Why: Four Cat 4 climbs over 193km means the sprinters will have to do a bit more work than they like to. Freire, being a rather cheeky rider, is well-suited to this type of stage. It's somewhat reminiscent of Milano-San Remo, which Freire of course won this year. The only problem is that he'll have to do it himself since they've got the team dedicated to Menchov (minus Rasmussen who is allowed to do his own Chicken Pox thing).
Monday, July 9, 2007
Stage 3 Pick
Edit: I wrote this post last night and it looked like it posted but when I checked on Tuesday afternoon, it wasn't showing up.
My post on the Stage 2 Pick was a bit prophetic. Should've stuck to my guns. Steegmans is impressive . . . remember that stage in the Tour of Qatar when he basically had to soft pedal the last 50m to allow Boonen to come around him?
Who: Tom Boonen
Why: It's a long stage, the longest of the Tour. After 239.5km and in the north of France, Boonen will feel just like he did at E3 Prijs and Dwars door Vlaanderen . . . good. It's basically a semi-classic and that is right up his alley.
My post on the Stage 2 Pick was a bit prophetic. Should've stuck to my guns. Steegmans is impressive . . . remember that stage in the Tour of Qatar when he basically had to soft pedal the last 50m to allow Boonen to come around him?
Who: Tom Boonen
Why: It's a long stage, the longest of the Tour. After 239.5km and in the north of France, Boonen will feel just like he did at E3 Prijs and Dwars door Vlaanderen . . . good. It's basically a semi-classic and that is right up his alley.
GC, Points and Mountain Picks
I forgot to put my General, Points and Mountain Classification picks in:
Yellow-
Who: Denis Menchov
Why: He has a solid team to support him (minus Oscar Freire . . . I doubt he'll make it to the end of the first week), though he's not much of a support rider anyways. He can climb and time trial and finished 6th last year. He won the Maillot Blanc in 2003. And I think Vinokourov will get tossed somewhere in the second week for a failed doping test.
Green-
Who: Robbie McEwen
Why: There are plenty of fast men to choose from but I don't think any are as consistent as McEwen. He has the ability to get over the smaller climbs that many of the other big sprinters can't (Boonen, Hushovd, etc). He's won it already in 2002, 2004 and 2006. He's got a great team that is dedicated to getting him stage wins (despite what they may say about Cadel Evans being their team leader).
Polka Dot-
Who: Michael Rasmussen
Why: He weighs about as much as a butterfly. He ran away with it last year and the year before, plus he'll be expected to be in the front group in any mountain stage to help out Menchov.
Yellow-
Who: Denis Menchov
Why: He has a solid team to support him (minus Oscar Freire . . . I doubt he'll make it to the end of the first week), though he's not much of a support rider anyways. He can climb and time trial and finished 6th last year. He won the Maillot Blanc in 2003. And I think Vinokourov will get tossed somewhere in the second week for a failed doping test.
Green-
Who: Robbie McEwen
Why: There are plenty of fast men to choose from but I don't think any are as consistent as McEwen. He has the ability to get over the smaller climbs that many of the other big sprinters can't (Boonen, Hushovd, etc). He's won it already in 2002, 2004 and 2006. He's got a great team that is dedicated to getting him stage wins (despite what they may say about Cadel Evans being their team leader).
Polka Dot-
Who: Michael Rasmussen
Why: He weighs about as much as a butterfly. He ran away with it last year and the year before, plus he'll be expected to be in the front group in any mountain stage to help out Menchov.
Stage 2 Pick
So now I'm back on top of my game for picks, let me review the results so far.
David Millar for the Prologue . . . turns out not to have been such a great pick. I guess his lack of drugs makes him go slow.
Tom Boonen for Stage 1 . . . decent pick, he got 3rd. McEwen pulled a rabbit out of his hat to come up with the win and you can't fight magic.
For Stage 2, my pick was also made before the Prologue, so don't accuse me of being a fair weather fan. It may have been better to switch my Stage 1 and Stage 2 picks:
Who: Robbie McEwen
Why: As the finish on Stage 1 demonstrated, the Scarlet Pimpernel always seems to remove his cloak at the last possible moment and steal victory away. The finish in Belgium would seem to benefit Boonen, but remember that McEwen also has a home there, so that may give him that extra bit of motivation.
David Millar for the Prologue . . . turns out not to have been such a great pick. I guess his lack of drugs makes him go slow.
Tom Boonen for Stage 1 . . . decent pick, he got 3rd. McEwen pulled a rabbit out of his hat to come up with the win and you can't fight magic.
For Stage 2, my pick was also made before the Prologue, so don't accuse me of being a fair weather fan. It may have been better to switch my Stage 1 and Stage 2 picks:
Who: Robbie McEwen
Why: As the finish on Stage 1 demonstrated, the Scarlet Pimpernel always seems to remove his cloak at the last possible moment and steal victory away. The finish in Belgium would seem to benefit Boonen, but remember that McEwen also has a home there, so that may give him that extra bit of motivation.
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