Who: Filippo Pozzatto
Why: He said he was going to win Stage 12. I believe him.
Thursday, July 19, 2007
Wednesday, July 18, 2007
What Counts
I am almost always in complete agreement with PezCyclingNews's Toolbox articles and I always find myself thinking as I read them at work (on coffee break, of course) that I should post about them. Inevitably I forget and a week goes by . . . by the time I remember, it's time for a new Toolbox.
This week's Toolbox is no exception. Read the four (plus the five 'others') ingredients carefully. Aerobic Capacity, Strength, Economy and Anaerobic Energy System. I have observed many a cyclist that seem to key only on Anaerobic Energy to the great detriment of the other three ingredients. And these aren't just willy-nilly riders. Some of them have coaches who prescribe this kind of program. They end up playing a numbers game that, to me, is a bit "instant gratification" and not necessarily prudent or desirable in the long term. I'm not picking specifically on coached riders, but on those that use a system (coach-defined or not) that involves a lot of go-hard to develop the Threshold/Anaerobic/Lactate/Etc system(s).
I am a huge proponent of the long ride. Not quite long steady distance (LSD) but close. The long ride does amazing things for your Aerobic Capacity and your Economy. When it comes to racing, I personally think that Economy is of the utmost importance. You don't have to be the strongest in the race. You just have to have the most energy left when it counts (i.e. when the winning break goes, on that final climb, or, as is most often the case for me, in the sprint). Improving Aerobic Capacity and Economy allow you to come to the line with more reserves than those around you.
I have found that a combination of long rides and consistent riding (six days per week on the bike, even the Monday Night Recovery Ride counts) give the biggest improvements in Aerobic Capacity and Economy and that is what I attribute most of the (admittedly limited in time and discipline) success on the bike.
This week's Toolbox is no exception. Read the four (plus the five 'others') ingredients carefully. Aerobic Capacity, Strength, Economy and Anaerobic Energy System. I have observed many a cyclist that seem to key only on Anaerobic Energy to the great detriment of the other three ingredients. And these aren't just willy-nilly riders. Some of them have coaches who prescribe this kind of program. They end up playing a numbers game that, to me, is a bit "instant gratification" and not necessarily prudent or desirable in the long term. I'm not picking specifically on coached riders, but on those that use a system (coach-defined or not) that involves a lot of go-hard to develop the Threshold/Anaerobic/Lactate/Etc system(s).
I am a huge proponent of the long ride. Not quite long steady distance (LSD) but close. The long ride does amazing things for your Aerobic Capacity and your Economy. When it comes to racing, I personally think that Economy is of the utmost importance. You don't have to be the strongest in the race. You just have to have the most energy left when it counts (i.e. when the winning break goes, on that final climb, or, as is most often the case for me, in the sprint). Improving Aerobic Capacity and Economy allow you to come to the line with more reserves than those around you.
I have found that a combination of long rides and consistent riding (six days per week on the bike, even the Monday Night Recovery Ride counts) give the biggest improvements in Aerobic Capacity and Economy and that is what I attribute most of the (admittedly limited in time and discipline) success on the bike.
Stage 11 Pick
Hmmm, on my long list for Stage 10 were both Sandy Casar as well as Cedric Vasseur. I should've thought to include Jens Voigt, obviously, but in the end, it didn't matter. Stage 11 should be a more straightforward small break + late catch + normal sprint.
Who: Fred Rodriguez
Why: McEwen is out and Rodriguez has been given the go-ahead to play his own card. He won't ever be much help to Cadel Evans except for tempo riding but they're not in that position, yet. A messy sprint could favor him although he has been known to be a pansyass when it comes to riders crossing lines and wheels. We'll see.
Who: Fred Rodriguez
Why: McEwen is out and Rodriguez has been given the go-ahead to play his own card. He won't ever be much help to Cadel Evans except for tempo riding but they're not in that position, yet. A messy sprint could favor him although he has been known to be a pansyass when it comes to riders crossing lines and wheels. We'll see.
Tuesday, July 17, 2007
Stage 10 Pick
This is another tough one to pick. Will Quickstep and Milram keep things in check? My guess is no. I'm betting on a small break staying away with a couple Cat3 and Cat4 climbs.
Who: Philippe Gilbert
Why: He's way down on GC, a Belgian one-day classic kind of rider, and riding for FDJ, whose best-placed GC man is in 69th place, a whopping 35'39" down (after Stage 8), one place below Erik Zabel . . . ZABEL! I've got my fingers crossed.
Who: Philippe Gilbert
Why: He's way down on GC, a Belgian one-day classic kind of rider, and riding for FDJ, whose best-placed GC man is in 69th place, a whopping 35'39" down (after Stage 8), one place below Erik Zabel . . . ZABEL! I've got my fingers crossed.
Monday, July 16, 2007
Stage 9 Pick
Well this is a tough one to pick. You've got some massively long and steep climbs but then a 38k descent to the finish. So you've gotta go with someone that can climb, can descend and can sprint. But do you go with a lesser name? Someone that wants just a single day of glory? Like I said, tough. Contador is taken, but otherwise I think he'd be a good pick.
Who: Alejandro Valverde
Why: Well, he can climb and he can sprint. He'll be in the "contenders" group. He won L-B-L so when he gets to the line with all those petite climbers, he should be able to outkick them (kind of like the asshat move he pulled on Cristophe Moreau in Stage 8).
Who: Alejandro Valverde
Why: Well, he can climb and he can sprint. He'll be in the "contenders" group. He won L-B-L so when he gets to the line with all those petite climbers, he should be able to outkick them (kind of like the asshat move he pulled on Cristophe Moreau in Stage 8).
Sunday, July 15, 2007
Owasco -- teh Suck
What is stupider than mountain biking?
Time-trialing.
Owasco started off with a 12.5ish mile TT. I rode complete and utter Merckx-style (i.e. sans aero of any sort) and still beat at least 20 d-bags with cash to burn (30'03"). Losers. But I sunburned my hands since I wasn't wearing gloves.
We sat around until the criterium. I spent some of that time sleeping on the concrete sidewalk outside the Auburn Wegmans. It was a really, really dumb criterium. I have no idea how I ended up with position going into the final turn (less than 100m from the uphill finish to the line -- yeah, like I said, really, really dumb) and pulled off 2nd after yet another d-bag (true story, ask Mark) from MIT pulled a cheeky move and chopped everyone to the inside.
The road race, despite being the worst ever, was awesome. I picked up some more bonus time (like that was going to help me, 2'30" down) in the first sprint. I came unhitched on the first KOM climb, a 1.2 mile 7% deal. I was in the third group over . . . the seven of us chasing back (ok, so honestly it was me and two Van Dessels chasing back, the rest were teh suxors) for 20 minutes. As soon as we got back on to the leaders, my back tire picked up a sweet sharp stone and went flat. Got a wheel change, chased back with two others (even more useless and lame than the non-Van Dessels in the first chase) with a bit of help from the wheel and follow car for another 20 minutes. Hung on for about 30 more minutes and then went *POP* on a section that looked like it came from a saltbox roof. Oh well. At least I chased back on twice.
P.S. I didn't finish.
P.P.S. Todd needs to go to man school.
P.P.P.S. Mark needs to go to potty training.
Time-trialing.
Owasco started off with a 12.5ish mile TT. I rode complete and utter Merckx-style (i.e. sans aero of any sort) and still beat at least 20 d-bags with cash to burn (30'03"). Losers. But I sunburned my hands since I wasn't wearing gloves.
We sat around until the criterium. I spent some of that time sleeping on the concrete sidewalk outside the Auburn Wegmans. It was a really, really dumb criterium. I have no idea how I ended up with position going into the final turn (less than 100m from the uphill finish to the line -- yeah, like I said, really, really dumb) and pulled off 2nd after yet another d-bag (true story, ask Mark) from MIT pulled a cheeky move and chopped everyone to the inside.
The road race, despite being the worst ever, was awesome. I picked up some more bonus time (like that was going to help me, 2'30" down) in the first sprint. I came unhitched on the first KOM climb, a 1.2 mile 7% deal. I was in the third group over . . . the seven of us chasing back (ok, so honestly it was me and two Van Dessels chasing back, the rest were teh suxors) for 20 minutes. As soon as we got back on to the leaders, my back tire picked up a sweet sharp stone and went flat. Got a wheel change, chased back with two others (even more useless and lame than the non-Van Dessels in the first chase) with a bit of help from the wheel and follow car for another 20 minutes. Hung on for about 30 more minutes and then went *POP* on a section that looked like it came from a saltbox roof. Oh well. At least I chased back on twice.
P.S. I didn't finish.
P.P.S. Todd needs to go to man school.
P.P.P.S. Mark needs to go to potty training.
Stage 8 Pick
Who: Levi Leipheimer
Why: The second real Alpine stage *should* give some sorting-out to the GC standings. However, some of them may want to wait until the Pyrénées to make their moves (this is a mistake, in my opinion). Levi is going fairly well, following somewhat in the footsteps of Landis in preparation for the Tour. We'll see if any of the GC men have what it takes.
Why: The second real Alpine stage *should* give some sorting-out to the GC standings. However, some of them may want to wait until the Pyrénées to make their moves (this is a mistake, in my opinion). Levi is going fairly well, following somewhat in the footsteps of Landis in preparation for the Tour. We'll see if any of the GC men have what it takes.
Friday, July 13, 2007
Stage 7 Pick
Haven’t seen the end of Stage 6 yet. Hoping Boonen podiums, at least.
Who: Frank Schleck
Why: CSC has indicated that he, along with Sastre, is their GC hopeful. I don’t think tomorrow will really sort out much of the GC but I think the stage will suit Schleck . . . much like the stage to Alpe d’Huez that he won last year. Plus, Luxembourg is nearly French, so he’s almost riding for Bastille Day glory. In hindsight, this is probably a bad pick because you KNOW a Frenchman will buy his way into the win tomorrow.
Who: Frank Schleck
Why: CSC has indicated that he, along with Sastre, is their GC hopeful. I don’t think tomorrow will really sort out much of the GC but I think the stage will suit Schleck . . . much like the stage to Alpe d’Huez that he won last year. Plus, Luxembourg is nearly French, so he’s almost riding for Bastille Day glory. In hindsight, this is probably a bad pick because you KNOW a Frenchman will buy his way into the win tomorrow.
Thursday, July 12, 2007
Stage 6 Pick
Hincapie placed 6th. Not bad, not bad. Stage 6 is another pure sprinter's stage.
Who: Tom Boonen
Why: He needs to do the Green Jersey honor and win a stage outright. His opportunities are becoming fewer and fewer. My only worry is that tomorrow will be a very easy stage and, in general, Boonen sprints well at the end of a hard stage when everyone else is tired.
Who: Tom Boonen
Why: He needs to do the Green Jersey honor and win a stage outright. His opportunities are becoming fewer and fewer. My only worry is that tomorrow will be a very easy stage and, in general, Boonen sprints well at the end of a hard stage when everyone else is tired.
Sicko, Part II
It seems that my semi-annual throat virus turned up last week and stuck with me through today. The sore throat has moved south and has become a hackish cough. Based on past experience, I can look forward to the cough for about a week or two.
Looks like I'll be taking it easy in Owasco this weekend and hoping my chest is clear for Altoona.
In general, I avoid riding whenever I'm sick below the neck but I don't think there's actually any sickness left, it's just residual. Off to the hills go I . . .
Looks like I'll be taking it easy in Owasco this weekend and hoping my chest is clear for Altoona.
In general, I avoid riding whenever I'm sick below the neck but I don't think there's actually any sickness left, it's just residual. Off to the hills go I . . .
Wednesday, July 11, 2007
Stage 5 Pick
What a hectic finish for Stage 4. Glad for Hushovd to get on the top step for the first time this year. Also glad my pick, Oscar Freire, got a podium spot. Good on Robbie Hunter for his consistency. Now, back to business:
Who: George Hincapie
Why: The stage has 8 categorized climbs (4xCat4 3xCat3 1xCat2), very nearly assuring a break will stay away. CSC looks ripe to hand off the jersey after doing a lot of tempo work (unnecessarily, in my opinion) early in the week. Hincapie is a man for the classics-type stages and Bruyneel has shown time and again that, without Armstrong, he's about as effective as a chicken with its head cut off when trying to organize a GC-centric team. Look for Hincapie to be part of a 10+ man breakaway and unleash his halfway-decent sprint in the finish.
Who: George Hincapie
Why: The stage has 8 categorized climbs (4xCat4 3xCat3 1xCat2), very nearly assuring a break will stay away. CSC looks ripe to hand off the jersey after doing a lot of tempo work (unnecessarily, in my opinion) early in the week. Hincapie is a man for the classics-type stages and Bruyneel has shown time and again that, without Armstrong, he's about as effective as a chicken with its head cut off when trying to organize a GC-centric team. Look for Hincapie to be part of a 10+ man breakaway and unleash his halfway-decent sprint in the finish.
Tuesday, July 10, 2007
Stage 4 Pick
Whoa. Cancellara. More impressive than McEwen's Stage 1 win. Seriously. Stuff of champions.
Who: Oscar Freire
Why: Four Cat 4 climbs over 193km means the sprinters will have to do a bit more work than they like to. Freire, being a rather cheeky rider, is well-suited to this type of stage. It's somewhat reminiscent of Milano-San Remo, which Freire of course won this year. The only problem is that he'll have to do it himself since they've got the team dedicated to Menchov (minus Rasmussen who is allowed to do his own Chicken Pox thing).
Who: Oscar Freire
Why: Four Cat 4 climbs over 193km means the sprinters will have to do a bit more work than they like to. Freire, being a rather cheeky rider, is well-suited to this type of stage. It's somewhat reminiscent of Milano-San Remo, which Freire of course won this year. The only problem is that he'll have to do it himself since they've got the team dedicated to Menchov (minus Rasmussen who is allowed to do his own Chicken Pox thing).
Sicko
I've been feeling a bit sick for about a week. It's nothing major, mostly just a sore throat and achy joints. I could feel it in the beginning of my ride last Friday and I've decided to take it easy (read: no riding) until I'm fully back to 100%. If that means no riding until Owasco, well, that's fine with me. So long as I'm fresh and ready for Altoona, I'll be happy.
I've found that training while you're sick is, at best, ineffective. You can easily cause more harm than good so it's best not to push it when your body isn't up to it. Would you run your car without any oil in the engine?
I've found that training while you're sick is, at best, ineffective. You can easily cause more harm than good so it's best not to push it when your body isn't up to it. Would you run your car without any oil in the engine?
Monday, July 9, 2007
Stage 3 Pick
Edit: I wrote this post last night and it looked like it posted but when I checked on Tuesday afternoon, it wasn't showing up.
My post on the Stage 2 Pick was a bit prophetic. Should've stuck to my guns. Steegmans is impressive . . . remember that stage in the Tour of Qatar when he basically had to soft pedal the last 50m to allow Boonen to come around him?
Who: Tom Boonen
Why: It's a long stage, the longest of the Tour. After 239.5km and in the north of France, Boonen will feel just like he did at E3 Prijs and Dwars door Vlaanderen . . . good. It's basically a semi-classic and that is right up his alley.
My post on the Stage 2 Pick was a bit prophetic. Should've stuck to my guns. Steegmans is impressive . . . remember that stage in the Tour of Qatar when he basically had to soft pedal the last 50m to allow Boonen to come around him?
Who: Tom Boonen
Why: It's a long stage, the longest of the Tour. After 239.5km and in the north of France, Boonen will feel just like he did at E3 Prijs and Dwars door Vlaanderen . . . good. It's basically a semi-classic and that is right up his alley.
GC, Points and Mountain Picks
I forgot to put my General, Points and Mountain Classification picks in:
Yellow-
Who: Denis Menchov
Why: He has a solid team to support him (minus Oscar Freire . . . I doubt he'll make it to the end of the first week), though he's not much of a support rider anyways. He can climb and time trial and finished 6th last year. He won the Maillot Blanc in 2003. And I think Vinokourov will get tossed somewhere in the second week for a failed doping test.
Green-
Who: Robbie McEwen
Why: There are plenty of fast men to choose from but I don't think any are as consistent as McEwen. He has the ability to get over the smaller climbs that many of the other big sprinters can't (Boonen, Hushovd, etc). He's won it already in 2002, 2004 and 2006. He's got a great team that is dedicated to getting him stage wins (despite what they may say about Cadel Evans being their team leader).
Polka Dot-
Who: Michael Rasmussen
Why: He weighs about as much as a butterfly. He ran away with it last year and the year before, plus he'll be expected to be in the front group in any mountain stage to help out Menchov.
Yellow-
Who: Denis Menchov
Why: He has a solid team to support him (minus Oscar Freire . . . I doubt he'll make it to the end of the first week), though he's not much of a support rider anyways. He can climb and time trial and finished 6th last year. He won the Maillot Blanc in 2003. And I think Vinokourov will get tossed somewhere in the second week for a failed doping test.
Green-
Who: Robbie McEwen
Why: There are plenty of fast men to choose from but I don't think any are as consistent as McEwen. He has the ability to get over the smaller climbs that many of the other big sprinters can't (Boonen, Hushovd, etc). He's won it already in 2002, 2004 and 2006. He's got a great team that is dedicated to getting him stage wins (despite what they may say about Cadel Evans being their team leader).
Polka Dot-
Who: Michael Rasmussen
Why: He weighs about as much as a butterfly. He ran away with it last year and the year before, plus he'll be expected to be in the front group in any mountain stage to help out Menchov.
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